BIA/Kelsey Sharply Lowers 2012 Print Ad Estimates, Radio Up Slightly
BIA/Kelsey has sharply lowered its newspaper revenue estimates for 2012 in light of high-profile newspapers cutting back on publication and the continued erosion of readership. In contrast, radio projections are down slightly but still up overall compared to 2011.
In BIA/Kelsey’s upcoming revision to its U.S. Local Media revenue estimates, the company originally expected a total decrease of -5% for the newspaper industry (print decrease of -6.6% and online increase of 6.0%.)
Results in the newspaper industry so far this year have been more disappointing. The company now expects a total decrease of -8.1% (print decrease of -10% and online increase of 5.0%) for 2012. In dollars, that’s $18.6 billion for print and $3.2 billion for online projected revenue.
For 2013, BIA/Kelsey expects a -6.6% decline for print, to $17.37 billion and an online increase of 5% to $3.36 billion. Collectively, print and online revenue will go down 4.9%.
BIA/Kelsey also slightly lowered its original radio revenue estimates for 2012 of $14.868 billion, however it still projects an increase for the year of 2.2%. Breaking that down, that’s $14.377 billion for over the air, which represents an increase of 1.9% from 2011.
The company projects $491 million for online/digital radio revenues for the year, a 12.1% increase over the previous year.
In 2011, in 2011 radio revenues were $14.553 billion. Of that, $14.115 billion represented over-the-air revenue and $438 million was for digital revenue.
Of course, the big story in 2012 is TV, which benefits greatly from political advertising. BIA/Kelsey projects television revenues will climb to $20.3 billion, up 10.0% from 2011. Of that total, $19.7 billion is for over-the-air, up 9.9% and online/digital is $615 million, up 14.9% over last year.
In 2011, television revenues were $18.437 billion, with the bulk of that $17.902 billion from over-the-air revenue and $525 million from digital.