At least one Wall Street analyst believes radio’s share of political ads for the 2012 campaign season will be roughly $256 million.

That would be relatively flat compared to 2008, according to Wells Fargo Senior Analyst Marci Ryvicker.

She tells clients this week that radio finished with $272 million in political ad spending in 2008, but also had 6.5% of the total political ad spend. In 2004, radio ended up with some $175 million in political ad money, with 6.6% of the total ad spend.

However in 2012, she’s projecting radio will end up with 5.2% of the total political ad bucket. Ryvicker did not cite a reason for the percentage slip.

At the same time, local TV’s share of the political ad spend is projected to be $2.6 billion, with 54% of the ad spend. Internet is just ahead of radio with an estimated $295 million for 6% of the total ad pie, with newspapers at $74 million and 1.5% of the total political ad spend in this presidential election year.

She cautioned the forecast is conservative and the numbers are projected through the end of July.